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RBI MPC Meet Minutes, US Markets, Oil Prices, Other Factors to Watch Out For


The BSE Sensex lost 2,943 points this past week, while the NSE Nifty50 closed at a sub-15,300 close in what was its worst weekly fall in two years, thanks to concerns over the US recession and tightening money policies globally. According to analysts, in the absence of any major domestic event scheduled coming week, the Indian equity markets focus is expected to shift to global trends, while keeping a tab on foreign fund movement and crude oil prices, analysts said, adding that the progress of monsoon would also be monitored.

“In absence of any major domestic event, global cues will continue to dictate the trend. Participants will also be eyeing COVID cases trend and progress of monsoon,” Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

“Relentless selling by FIIs is a key concern for the Indian markets. Rupee movement and development of monsoon will be other important factors for the market,” said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

Here Are The Key Triggers That Will Affect Traders This Week:

US Markets in Focus

Investors will keep a keen eye on economic data points emerging from the US over the next week to gauge the status of the economy as fears rise that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hike stance could nudge the United States into a technical recession over the next 12 months.

FPI Selling

Trends in investment by foreign institutional investors and the movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be closely watched by the investors. Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers in the capital market on Friday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 7,818.61 crore, as per exchange data. The rupee settled the week at 78.05 against the dollar.

RBI MPC Meet Minutes

Macroeconomy watchers will be hooked to the minutes of the monetary policy committee’s June policy meeting, which will be released next week, for cues to the rate-setting panel’s next move. While the May CPI inflation data should provide some relief to the MPC on the inflation front, the panel is likely to move ahead with more rate hikes.

Monsoon Watch

The progress of the southwest monsoon into India after making landfall in the last week of May has been disappointing so far. The slow progress and patchy rains in many agriculture-heavy regions of the country could further shake investor confidence in the economy as well as fan concerns over inflation remaining higher for a longer period of time.

Nifty Technical Outlook

Technically, Nifty has surrendered key support of 15,700 level and there is a risk of further downside, where 15,000 is a key psychological support level then 14,500 is the next major support therefore 15,000-14,500 is a key demand zone where we can expect a bottom formation. However, On Friday’s trading session, Nifty formed a Doji candlestick formation followed by a sharp sell-off therefore low of the Doji candle which is placed at the 15,183 level will act as an immediate support level. On the upside, 15,500/15,700 are immediate and critical resistance levels.

Bank Nifty

“Bank Nifty has slipped below the psychological level of 33,000 however 32,250-32,000 is an immediate and critical demand zone where we can expect a bounceback; below this, 30,500 will be the next support level. On the upside, 33,000 is an immediate hurdle then 33,750-34,000 is the next supply zone. If we look at the derivative data then the long exposure of FIIs in the index future is a multi-year low of 13 per cent whereas the put-call ratio is sitting at 0.75 level, therefore, the overall market looks oversold,” Meena said.

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